Sunk Cost Fallacy: The Silent Killer of Founders and You

On the journey of building something meaningful, there often comes a quiet moment of realization: something no longer feels right. But we keep it going and ignore it. The signs appear gradually — the pressure grows, breathing feels heavier, and one day we realize we are no longer walking toward what we truly want.

But by then, we feel we've already invested too much to turn back. So we rationalize to ourselves that maybe there is still a way to fix it — and we keep pushing forward. Until eventually we discover that we have nothing left to burn. The suffering is no longer ours alone; it spreads to the people who trusted us, our team who walked with us, our family who relied on us, and ultimately, ourselves. And then the enormous grief comes on our shoulders, pulling us down, into the depths of lifelong regret.

Then I woke up — cold hands, fear, and the horror of what that "dream" revealed. A vision of what happens when the cost consumes everything.

That was my nightmare in 2021.

That dream ignited me to think clearly, pause, and reflect deeply on my life. It pushed me to evaluate every cost I had carried—both the sunk cost that could never be recovered and the opportunity cost that I would continue to pay if I stayed on the same path. Both can quietly consume you if you are not aware of them, and sometimes, when you finally realize it, turning back is no longer easy.

In this article, I want to share not just a story, but a way to think more clearly about risk, cost, and decision-making. Whether you choose to act or choose to stay still, it is still a decision, and every decision leads somewhere. This reflection is not only for business owners, but for anyone who needs to evaluate the opportunities ahead of them.

What is sunk cost?

A sunk cost is any cost that has already been spent and cannot be recovered, regardless of what happens next. The problem is not the cost itself, but how our mind reacts to it. The Sunk Cost Fallacy is our tendency to keep investing time, money, energy, and emotions into something just because we've already invested so much— even when walking away would actually be the wiser decision.

Many leaders, founders, and professionals fall into this trap. They pour years of effort, sacrificing their health, straining relationships, and trading peace of mind in the hope that "one more push" will fix everything. But sometimes the honest truth is this: there is nothing left to burn, and continuing only deepens the damage. That is the brutal reality of sunk cost — it does not destroy instantly; it erodes slowly, silently, and deeply.

Once a person finally sees and measures how massive the sunk cost truly is, the next step is crucial: break free before the fallacy consumes more time, more health, and more of who you are. Seriously.

And even beyond business and leadership, everyone faces another equally important concept every day: Opportunity Cost.

What is opportunity cost?

Opportunity cost is the potential benefits that an individual, investor, or business misses out on when choosing one alternative over another.

Opportunity Cost = RMPIC − RICP

where:

RMPIC = Return on the most profitable investment choice

RICP = Return on investment chosen to pursue

For example, in a career, if we move to Jakarta and work as a senior software engineer, we might get a salary of around Rp. 25.000.000, -, - this is your RMPIC. And then you choose to stay in Bandung with the maximum wage, which is maybe around Rp. 12,000,000, and this is RICP.

So, you can now calculate your Opportunity Cost: RMPIC - RICP = 25mio - 12mio = 13mio, which is the cost you incur per month. Per year, it would cost you 156mio. That's your total lost opportunity from the perspective of money.

I know it's not only about money, but do you also calculate the other aspect? Yes, we need to calculate the other opportunity costs for our emotions, time, relationships, and health. As you know, the older you are, the harder it is to get a job in Indonesia, because companies prefer the best-fit employee with their criteria as young as possible. And the longer you leave the relationship cold, the colder and harder it becomes to melt it down.

Why can we easily be trapped?

From my perspective, the hardest wall to jump is my ego and pride. I rationalize the situation that cannot be changed, not because of the situation itself, but because you cannot change people's health and mindset. You think you can, because you believe people change better every day, thanks to life's lessons. Yes, but change comes slowly, and it doesn't come at all if a person isn't ready to accept the lesson.

The ego rarely comes alone. Its closest companions are pride and shame. Pride whispers, "Don't quit. Don't look weak. Stay, so you can say you didn't give up." Shame adds, "If you leave, people will judge you." But here is the painful truth: staying on a sinking ship does not save dignity — it only delays the embarrassment. Whether you face it early or face it later, you will still face it. The difference is how much of your life you lose in between.

The second aspect never includes your friends, whom you can trust to evaluate your steps and calculations. Everyone has their own bias, even if they are too optimistic, too pessimistic, or too skeptical. Having a community that supports you even in the midst of hell is a necessity. Our brain makes us feel comfortable, stable, and safe. Growth sometimes required challenge, stress, and uncertain situations. Always put a grain of salt in every hypothesis that you make.

Third, calculate, don't be lazy. Don't say that you are busy. That's why a company needs a good finance leader who not only is smart enough to make all data clear, but also can make a good strategy. When basic financial discipline slips, small things like an invoice missed or numbers not reconciled, it quietly limits how much a company can grow. From a personal perspective, I've had to be honest with myself about the same discipline: it's easy to be 'too busy' to calculate every real cost in your own life. Start now, calculate your cost.

The Wiser option

Sunk cost can be enormous. Opportunity cost can be even greater. Staying can silently cost years, health, dignity, and identity. Leaving, though painful, can mean choosing clarity over illusion, future over nostalgia, and life over exhaustion. But life must go on; you need to choose which path to take. You cannot rely on the promise of someone else, even written in the contract; everyone can break the contract with a thousand reasons, and you have nothing. You are responsible for your life, your family, and your sanity. Choose the wiser option if you cannot find the best option. Let God lead your way, instead of trying to control everything in your life.

The evidence of God's hands in my journey

In my journey of making the most difficult decision of my life, God did not lead me through clarity of logic alone — He led me through His presence.

For years, from 2021 to the end of 2023, I evaluated every path carefully (opportunity and loss). But beyond calculations, I prayed. I kept asking God to guide me: whether I should keep fighting for the business I built or step into a new chapter and pursue further study. If I chose to study, it wasn't only about me. It could bring international credibility, new opportunities, new networks, and even potential benefits for the company. It could also reduce the financial burden, because the company would not need to pay my salary; they would only need to pay dividends if the company actually generated profit.

So in February 2024, I took a step of faith and applied for the Fulbright scholarship — not as an escape, but as an act of obedience. From February until August 2024, I prayed every single day. Not once did God stay silent. He began to open one door so clearly, and at the same time, He allowed another door to close slowly, firmly, and undeniably. One path felt uncertain, foggy, and full of unknowns, but it was peaceful, steady, and filled with His presence. The other path was familiar, but exhausting, emotionally draining, and full of resistance. After God opened one door, the other closed; every meeting was like hitting my face against a great wall.

I realized God was not only showing me where to go, but He was teaching me how to trust Him. I didn't expect to end as early as this. I ended my career as founder and CEO on December 31, 2024. I don't have any experience being jobless before; this is a new thing, and I don't know where I should go while waiting for my departure to study in August 2025. On January 2, 2025, in the morning, I woke up to a call from someone who was interested in working with me and invited me to join him for lunch to discuss more details. I was shocked and praised God. I got a job instantly. God is good, God never leaves you alone, God provides.

Sometimes, God guides by opening a mysterious path, but you must move forward with faith. When the answer is clear, trust Him to guide you through the entire process, even though it may be bitter and painful. But it is a must, let's do it.